High Performance Compute Roadmap: 2025-2030

Advanced Packaging- Enabling Next Generation Silicon Chips

Key Takeaways:

  1. Increasing Design and Manufacturing Complexity associated with silicon chip development at < 5nm nodes and skyrocketing Development Costs will accelerate the use of Advanced Packaging across all market segments.
  2. The HPC/Server, Networking and High-End Smartphone market will be the “Lead Adopters” for Advanced Packaging Solutions.
  3. Co-Packaged Optics will see a major uptick to address Compute and I/O bottlenecks in Distributed Deep Learning and Datacenter market.
  4. By 2027, the Consumer, Automotive, Defense, Aerospace, Industrial and Medical market segments will also increasingly adopt Advanced Packaging driven by new innovations, standardizations and price erosion as the technology matures.
  5. Discrete Components will see a price erosion as “Motherboard-On-A-Chip” becomes a reality.
  6. In-Memory Compute and Photonics will emerges as the next frontier of innovation; as will novel ways to build monolithic multi-layer silicon chips to address limits of lithography.

Categories

Software Defined Vehicle-A Strategic Roadmap

References:

  • https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/passenger-cars/luxury-cars/worldwide#unit-sales
  • https://www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/
  • https://www.blumeglobal.com/learning/automotive-supply-chain/
  • https://medium.com/next-level-german-engineering/porsche-future-of-code-526eb3de3bbe
  • https://www.osvehicle.com/how-many-sensors-are-in-your-car/
  • https://www.juniperresearch.com/blog/december-2021/the-rising-demand-for-automotive-sensors
  • https://www.counterpointresearch.com/promising-yet-challenging-market-self-driving-socs/
  • Revealing the Complexity of Automotive Software, Volvo Automotive Group (2020)

Datacenter Optical Transceiver Market

IoT Asset Management Solution: Trucking & Fleet Management

A high level architectural view of an IoT Asset Management Solution built from ground up to address the needs of different market segments.

The end use for Trucking and Fleet management tries to address the following key requirements:

  1. Low Cost Solution.
  2. Real-Time tracking even when faced with intermittent connectivity.
  3. Reliability to handle the most demanding terrain and environment.
  4. Scalable and Adaptable to accommodate various use cases.
  5. Security to prevent tampering and unauthorized access.

Asset Tracking & Management: An IoT Strategic Imperative

One of the most compelling use cases in IoT is in the area of Asset Tracking and Management. Asset classes can range from living, nonliving, transitory, stationary, remote to the accessible. An Asset Tracking system designed for one asset class can rarely be redeployed for another asset class as is. Each of the use cases and application scenarios are different and unique.

A further challenge to the emergence of a single dominant platform for managing assets is the heterogenous nature of assets that firms typically employ, even within the same industry. Therein lies the challenge of developing an Asset Tracking system; necessitating a multifaceted approach across various disciplines.

Wastage in Businesses – Inefficiency or Cost of Doing Business?

Every year businesses across all sectors of the economy lose billions of dollars on account of the following:

  1. Excess Inventory on hand.
  2. Low Asset Utilization and/or Asset Loss.
  3. Non-identifiable, Non-trackable and Perishable supplies.
  4. Labor costs associated with idling and/or unnecessary hauling of equipment.
  5. Line stoppages and business interruptions due to missing supplies and/or equipment breakdown.
  6. Cost of expediated transportation.

The above challenges need a systemic approach to tackle the inefficiencies, but you can’t fix what you don’t know.

Asset Tracking System: A Strategic Imperative

Activist investors are pressuring mismanaged firms to undertake a strategic review of how their businesses are run. During the 2017 proxy season, activists launched 327 public campaigns against U.S. companies, with $121 Billion1 under their management. Firms needs to proactively identify areas of weakness in their sphere of activities and call for a course correction.

Here are a few examples where the use of Asset tracking can unleash hidden value, eliminate waste and increase overall efficiency:

  1. In Los Angeles and Long Beach, California home to the busiest container ports in the USA, average truck turn time is around 82 minutes.2
  2. According to a 2017 study by National Retail Federation U.S. businesses lose around $50 billion annually to retail shrinkage.3
  3. Transportation delays in-transit and on customer premises will cost US chemical manufacturers an additional $22 billion in working capital on account of additional inventory held.4
  4. Annually hospitals lose 20% of their equipment. Historically asset utilization in US Hospitals has stayed around 40 percent, which means valuable assets such as IV pumps sit idle 60 percent of the time.5
  5. In the USA, an average city water utility loses 30 percent of the water supplied through leaks or un-billed usage.6

Asset Tracking System: A Competitive Advantage

The Internet has played an important role in the creation of new products-ideas, their diffusion and in levelling the playing field across firms and industries. Gone are the days where quality management systems such as TQM and Six Sigma enabled firms to leap frog competition.

The basis for competition in the hyperconverged world relies on achieving better quality with greater agility, easier provisioning and lower administrative costs. It’s imperative for firms to adopt a system wide view of their activities from procurement, design, manufacturing, operations, delivery, installation to use.

A firm that can leverage enterprise knowledge, integrate best practices and leverage asset tracking data can acquire a competitive advantage over its rival. To get there, firms need to invest on a platform that can leverage multiple data points and in-house knowledge to unlock hidden value.

Asset Tracking: Passive, Active or Intelligent?

At the basic level passive asset tracking involves nothing more than an electronic label and reader (e.g. RFID, NFC). One level higher is Active Tacking which entails connectivity, LBS (Location Based Services) and some form of a sensor coupled to a power source.

An intelligent asset tracking solution adds an extra layer of complexity with On-Board Monitoring, of one or more parameters of interest. Applications that require Real-Time resolution can now handle extreme events and undertake preventative actions.

Asset Tracking and Management – The Six Critical Elements

A compelling Asset Tracking solution requires the delicate act of balancing six critical elements – Sensors, Location Based Services (LBS), Connectivity, Power Consumption, On-Board Monitoring and Analytics.

  1. Sensors: The one analogy that I can think of when it comes to sensors is blood. Like blood, sensors serve three main functions: convey, protect and regulate the asset under observation. Sensors comes in all shapes, forms and functions the choice depends on what one intends to monitor, control and prevent.
  2. Location Based Services (LBS): For assets confined within a certain geographic radius (e.g. hospitals, warehouses, factory floor) one can assign fixed location identifiers or use triangulation (aided by beacons) to pinpoint location. If the asset under consideration involves a moving target (e.g. trucks, drones, mining equipment, shipping containers) that requires real-time monitoring one can select GPS or A-GPS (lower battery drain).
  3. Connectivity: The choice of connectivity often boils down to the tracker location (local vs. remote) and mobility (stationary vs. transitory) constraints. Additional requirements stem from network reach and coverage – PAN, LAN, MAN or WAN. The choice for a reliable connection range from NFC, Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), ZigBee, ZigBee-IP, IEEE 802.11ah, WLAN to LPWAN (SigFox, LoRa, RPMA, Symphony Link, Weightless, NB-IoT, LTE-M). To offset some of the limitations arising out of cost, security and low power consumption gateway devices are often deployed for last-mile connectivity.
  4. Power Consumption: One of the key design metric in deploying trackers is whether to be battery or grid powered. For remote or unreachable applications, the choice is often forced. Additional constraints that dictate power usage include -Always ON, Alive When Spoken To and Periodic Awake.
  5. OnBoard Monitoring: Applications that demand real-time monitoring have an additional constraint: take preventative or corrective actions before it’s too late. In battery powered devices there is a critical requirement to eliminate redundant data transfers or aggregate sensor readings. Both these scenarios call for an On-Board monitoring system.
  6. Analytics: What good is any data if you can’t act on it. The real value in any asset tracking system is knowing how to develop real-world solutions based on the insights gathered. The applications are numerous but just to list a few – Overall Equipment Efficiency, Defect Monitoring & Classification, Predictive & Preventative Maintenance, Trend Analysis and the holy grail using Machine Learning and AI to uncover hidden value.

A follow-on post will look at how various technologies can be leveraged and integrated to build a solution from ground up, specifically for the trucking industry.

References:

  1. The 2017 Proxy Season, Published by J.P. Morgan’s M&A Team, July 2017
  2. Average Monthly Truck Turn Time, Harbor Trucking Association, 2015-2017
  3. National Retail Security Survey 2017, NRF
  4. Transporting growth: Delivering a Chemical Manufacturing Renaissance, American Chemistry Council, March 2017
  5. Industry Survey: Transformative Technology Adoption and Attitudes—Location Technologies, ABI Research, 2Q 2017
  6. Smart Water Network, Navigant Research, 2016
  7. Prince, Jeffrey and Simon, Daniel H., Has the Internet Accelerated the Diffusion of New Products? (April 1, 2009).

Acknowledgements:

In fond memory of Rev Fr. Agnelo Pinto and Rev Fr. Pat D’Lima whose guidance during my adolescent years at St Paul’s High was instrumental in shaping who I am today.

Product Management: It’s more than just MRDs and PRDs

Every successful product should have a Marketing Requirements Document (MRD)and a Product Requirements Document (PRD) that together define the overall purpose, scope and goals for the product and its stakeholders – the firm, its end customers and its shareholders.

Product Management: Achilles’ heel  

Very few companies, champion internal processes or a work culture where product management is given the importance it deserves. Product Management often gains prominence when the product has been commoditized or when the industry is maturing (decline). The exception to the rule are medical device and biotechnology firms where regulatory requirements demand thorough book keeping.

In some firms a member of the marketing or engineering team helms the role of Product Management; such a role is replete with managerial hubris.

A good Product Management practice necessitates that the function of Marketing, Product Management, Engineering, Finance and Operations be distinct and separate, to avoid conflicts of interest and managerial bias (Group-Think, Self-Selection, Sunk-Costs, Representativeness, Availability, Risk-averse, Risk-seeking).

Marketing Requirements Document (MRD)

In my view the marketing team, in cohorts with strategic planning, defines the overall skeleton for the MRD (Marketing Requirements Document). In some firms this role is delegated to the office of New Product Planning and Innovation.

A good MRD is one that encompasses a well-defined market (market segments), outlines the revenue and profitability goals and defines the Go-To market strategy to make the product successful.

Product Managers should never own or be tasked with defining the MRD for two reasons.

  1. First, an inherent conflict of interest and self-selection bias will drive most PM’s into solidifying their role in the company.
  2. Second, the sole purpose of a MRD is to enact a system of checks and balances to review the overall performance, profitability and viability for the product or business.

Product Requirements Document (PRD)

A Product Manager uses the MRD as a blueprint to conceive the mind, body and soul for the Product.

PRD: Where do I start?

It is my firm belief that a PRD should be customer centric and not engineering driven.

If the product in question is backed by a revolutionary new idea, then ethnographic studies and focus groups are vital in shaping the PRD.

If the nature of the innovation is incremental then a treasure pile of correspondence between and among market participants (internal and external) is where you should start. If possible, immerse yourself into learning about the customer by joining the sales and marketing team on field visits.

A new product must justify its place in the marketplace. A comprehensive market review and competitive analysis that includes features, price, channels and promotion must be undertaken. In fact, I recommend every Product Manager to do this when he or she assumes a new position.

The use of multidimensional scaling and conjoint analysis are indispensable tools both when conceiving new offerings or streamlining existing products.

Functional Performance, Acquisition Cost, Ease-of-Use, Operating Cost, Reliability, Serviceability and Compatibility should dictate technology choices and the overall scope, form and shape of the product.

Recognizing your Stakeholders

Any successful product requires teamwork and the ability to bring together people towards a common goal. Inherent in any organization are power dynamics that come into play that need to be handled with tact and diplomacy.

A Product Manager will face various stakeholders, with conflicting goals, as the product moves from conception to commercialization.

  1. The finance team which green lights the project, approves development costs, allocates resources and evaluates profitability goals (upon release).
  2. The R&D, engineering and supply chain teams that work diligently to bring the product to life.
  3. The legal department in drafting-reviewing contracts and licensing terms with partners, vendors and suppliers.
  4. The regulatory and certification bodies who confer product safety and grant market approval prior to launch.
  5. The marketing, sales and support team who will promote, deliver and support the product as it gets adopted by customers.
  6. The corporate and strategic planning team who evaluate business performance and manage shareholder value.

Product Manager: A Lone Ranger

A PM is akin to a lone ranger fighting for the glory of his (her) product.

The ultimate responsibility for ensuring that the PRD and MRD converge; deliver value to the firm and its investors falls on the Product Manager.

The traits that I personally advocate a great Product Manager to possess are empathy, curiosity, humility, attention to detail, entrepreneurial, embrace uncertainty, foresighted and data driven.

Keep the Innovation Running, it’s the lifeblood that fuels humanity.

Vision for IoT Smart Personal Assistant

The current generation of Smart Wearables Devices (SWD) were primarily introduced as a companion device to the smartphone. As such, SWD’s offer nothing more than the added convenience of “usability of the go” and “small form factor“.

Most buyers, including me, question the wisdom of owning a muted version of a smartphone on their wrist; a key reason stalling wider adoption of SWD.

To find their rightful niche in the marketplace, SWD need to evolve from a smartphone centric device to a stand-alone IoT Personal Assistant (IPA).

Vision for IoT Smart Personal Assistant

In a follow-on post, I will outline my vision for a device coined “IoT Smart Personal Assistant (IPA)”; one that can enhance quality of life for its users and unlock hidden value for market participants.

Smart Water Monitoring – A Market Opportunity.